Isaac Laquedem

The Facebook sellers have sent you a friend request

They haven't?  They should, particularly if you bought some of the newly public shares from Facebook's initial public offering (IPO) 11 days ago.  The stock, expected to be offered in the low $30s, came to market on May 18 at $38/share, and popped up to $45 on opening day before settling down . . . way down, in fact, closing at $28.84 today.  The press and other commentators have roundly derided Facebook's IPO as a failure because the stock has gone down instead of up.  A successful IPO, they say, is one where the stock goes up smartly above the offering price.  A company called Splunk (traded as SPLK), for example, went public in April at $17/share and is now trading at $36.

That makes the offering a success for the lucky souls whose brokers allot some of the shares to them, and for the investment banks that don't let their shares out to the buyers at once, but a failure for the company and its owners.  Take Splunk, for example.  The sellers and the company received $17/share for something that the market was willing to pay $30 or more for.  (Since going public last month, the stock has never traded below $28.)  Although the Splunk offering is hailed as a success, if you were one of the Splunk sellers, or the company itself, it was a huge failure -- the company received about 40% less for its stock than the market was willing to pay.

By contrast, the Facebook sellers received top dollar for their merchandise.

A failure, or a success?  It depends on which side of the table you're sitting. 

The Oregonian simultaneously puffs and muffs the First District race

Today's Oregonian brought a front-page story on how Suzanne Bonamici is settling in as the First District's representative following her election in January to fill out the unexpired term of David Wu. It's a very favorable story for Rep. Bonamici -- almost a puff piece -- especially the day before ballots are due back.

Eight paragraphs in, the story, by reporter Charles Pope, features this gem:

Tuesday, Bonamici faces her third election since November. This one is largely a technicality; she faces no primary opposition and Republicans haven't fielded candidates for a primary. The campaign free ride allows her to concentrate on her new job in Congress.

Mr. Pope doesn't read his own newspaper.  As Jeff Mapes reported on February 29, conservative activist Lisa Michaels filed for the Republican nomination, and a day or two later, D.R. Delinda Morgan also filed for the Republican nomination.  The editorial staff can count; it endorsed Ms. Michaels for the Republican nomination on April 17.

This isn't the first time that the Whimperer lost track of the First District race; back in October its reporter Harry Esteve disposed of five of the eight Democratic candidates for the January special election.  This is, however, the first time I can recall the newspaper blithely omitting an entire party.

Happy Mother's Day to Venerable Mom Laquedem, assisted by Professor Lehrer

Venerable Mom Laquedem was instantly taken with "Momsms," by Anita Renfroe, to which I linked in my other post for this Mother's Day, when I played it for her for Passover.  (Our family has some unusual observances.)  My regular Mother's Day serenade to her is Tom Lehrer's song "Oedipus Rex," which I'll sing to her today, as is my custom.  Venerable Mom will reply as is her custom, with a couple of words that aren't in my day-to-day vocabulary followed by the suggestion that a card and a box of chocolates would have been adequate. 

Happy Mother's Day

Anita Renfroe says it well in her song "Momisms," which she describes as "everything a mother would say in 24 hours, condensed into two minutes and fifty-five seconds."

 

Endorsements III - the battle for the Clackamas County Commission

The most significant local races this year are not the three for the Portland city council, where the outcomes will make little difference in the city's general political tenor, but the three for the Clackamas County Commission, where the results may cause the county to do a political about-face.

Four politically experienced candidates are running for chair of the commission.  Paul Savas is an incumbent commissioner with many years of service on government boards.  Charlotte Lehan and John Ludlow are former mayors of Wilsonville.  Dave Hunt has served five terms in the Oregon House including one as speaker of the house. My capsule and likely unfair summary is that Mr. Savas is the centrist, Ms. Lehan is the most aligned with Metro, Mr.Hunt is the most aligned with TriMet, and Mr. Ludlow is the least aligned with Metro and TriMet.  The catch to recommending one of these four capable candidates is that the winner's effectiveness will depend on the outcome of the other two races.

Position 3 has three candidates: Jeff Caton, Jim Knapp, and Martha Schrader.  Mr. Caton works for the Bonneville Power Administration and has a business and finance background. He has not held elective office.  Mr. Knapp has served on several government volunteer boards.  Ms. Schrader served six years as a county commissioner and two years in the state Senate. 

Position 4 has four candidates: Jamie Damon, Dan Holladay, Tootie Smith, and John Swanson.  Ms. Damon is the incumbent, appointed in 2011 to fill a vacancy. Mr. Holladay is a former Oregon City councilor and former Oregon City school board member.  Ms. Smith served two terms in the Oregon House and is now a lobbyist.  Mr. Swanson is chief of staff for state Senator Chuck Thomsen.

In an ordinary election the result would be a tossup between Mr. Hunt (who has union and Realtor backing) and Ms. Lehan (who has the support of the government insiders).  Ms. Schrader (backed by unions and the Realtors) would win her race handily, and Ms. Damon (backed by unions and the Realtors) would win her race, though not by as wide a magin as Ms. Schrader.

This is not, however, an ordinary election.  When Mr. Knapp led the petition drive to put the $5/year license fee for the Sellwood Bridge on the Clackamas County ballot two years ago, he created an organization -- perhaps "network" is the better word -- of conservative activists.  That network formed the base for this year's petition drive against Clackamas County's promised $25 million contribution to Milwaukie light rail, and resulted in Mr. Ludlow, Mr. Knapp, and Ms. Smith all running for the county commission this year.  It also resulted in the Oregon Transformation Project PAC giving large sums to the three candidates ($44,000 to Mr. Knapp and Ms. Smith this year, and $115,000 to Mr. Ludlow), upending the traditional world of campaign finance.  (Mr. Ludlow's contributions this year are 25% more than Mr. Hunt's, three times Ms. Lehan's, and four times Mr. Savas's.)  The Oregon Transformation Project also rented a billboard along Interstate 205 in support of Messrs. Ludlow and Knapp and Ms. Smith as a slate.

It seems to me that the commission should reflect the diversity of thought that has developed in Clackamas County.  For that reason I am recommending that any late voters who read this vote for Paul Savas as chair -- he is likely to be the most balanced and impartial among the four candidates -- and Martha Schrader and Tootie Smith for the other two seats.  It would be a mistake for Clackamas County voters to elect all of the Ludlow-Knapp-Smith slate, but it would also be a mistake to elect none of them.

Endorsements II - the Portland ballot measures

The Portland Charter Review Commission has identified nine provisions of the City Charter that it believes should be amended or repealed, and the Council has referred the proposals to the voters.  These appear on Portland ballots as measures 26-126 to 26-134.  Portland voters can comfortably vote in favor of all nine.

Several of these amendments repeal ancient provisions of the Charter that conflict with later interpretations of state law, for example provisions that prohibit exhibiting deformed persons on the street and that allow the City to require vagrants to accept employment.  The two most interesting measures are 26-127 and 26-131.  The Charter allows the mayor $2000/year for a "secret service fund" and allows the council $5000/year for a similar fund, and says that the mayor and council do not have to account for how they spend the money.  Measure 26-127, if adopted, will require the mayor to account for the $2000/year, and Measure 26-131 will require the council to account for the $5000/year.  I have to admit that I'm curious not just how the mayor might have been using the $2000, but also about what (or who) $2000/year was supposed to buy way back when the provision was adopted.

Endorsements I - The Portland City Council

I approach this year's mayoral contest in Portland with my belief that a city that admits in public, as Portland has, that it can't afford to maintain its streets shouldn't start any new and expensive programs until it can manage the ones it has.  The current City Council, collectively, lamentably fails on this point, though I suspect that Commissioner Saltzman understands the point and would argue it more if he didn't know he'd be outvoted.

I look among the mayoral candidates for those who recognize this failure of the city and are willing to do something about it.  Several see it: Scott Rose and Scott Fernandez, for example,   The mayoral candidate I'm most intrigued with is college student Max Brumm, who offers this gem in his Voter's Pamphlet entry: "The problem with our civic leaders is we don't have any.  What we have are account managers in hedge fund schemes known as the Rose City.  They take their orders from developers and power elite like waiters take a dinner order.  The only difference is instead of nametags these leaders come with pricetags."  I have two reservations about Mr. Brumm.  First is that he doesn't have any administrative experience yet, and as under our commission form of government the mayor is the chief administrator of the city, I think the mayor should have some.  Second is that I'm a minor acolyte of the power elite myself, though I don't think Mr. Brumm has me in mind.

So I'm looking not so much for someone who will destroy the existing power elite, but for a candidate who will manage the city's interactions with the power elite on sound principles of political economy.  That candidate, this year, is Eileen Brady.  The City Council needs another member with business experience, and I prefer her business experience to that of Charlie Hales because hers didn't depend on selling things to the government.

Four candidates are challenging Amanda Fritz's bid for re-election, most notably State Representative Mary Nolan, who has mounted the strongest of the five campaigns.  I don't get along with Commissioner Fritz personally, and I'm philosophically aligned more closely with Rep. Nolan, but I think the Council should have one Amanda Fritz -- one person who will question the established order.  Every Troy needs its Laocoon to warn of the gifts offered by the developer class.

Position 4, being vacated by Randy Leonard, has attracted five contestants.  The easy choice here is Steve Novick, who among the 23 candidates for the three positions is by far the most outstanding in talent, intelligence, and energy.  It's time for the City to put him to work.

Lincoln High School should wait its turn

I've followed with some interest the efforts of the City of Portland and Portland State University to create an urban renewal district that would encompass, among other not very blighted areas, the buildings and grounds of Lincoln High School.  (Professor Bogdanski has commented in some detail on the City's efforts, here and here.)

I don't begrudge Portland State trying to get something for itself, not just because state support of higher education has dwindled so dramatically in the last twenty years.  I am, however, mystified by the participation of the Portland School Board in a process that would move Lincoln High School somewhere else, at great expense, for the Lincoln High School building is, I think, the second-newest Portland public high school, having been built in 1952.  Only Wilson is newer.

It's true that the Lincoln building is 60 years old, but it's still modern by Portland standards: a little Googling shows that the new portion of Cleveland opened in 1948, Roosevelt opened in 1921, and Franklin opened in 1917.  Rich as the Lincoln parents may be, the school district has facilities needs far more pressing than rebuilding LIncoln.  Metaphorically speaking, it would be gratifying to see the school board insist that no matter how much it may desire a facelift, Lincoln must defer to its elders.

The Mausoleum Club responds to the May Day protesters

The May Day protesters are rallying in the Shemanski Block, the most northerly of the South Park Blocks.  It's the half-block behind the Schnitzer Auditorium.  Musicians are playing at the north end of the block, decrying the capitalist state, with the brickwork of Arlington Club behind their stage.

Coincidentally, Arlington Club has lowered its flag to half-staff.

Isaac celebrates Tax Day 2012

We interrupt our usual support for the social welfare state for our annual commemoration of Tax Day with this comment from Senator Warren G. Magnuson (1905-1989), who represented the State of Washington in Congress for 44 years, rising to become chairman of the Senate Committee on Appropriations in 1977. 

Senator Magnuson famously described the Internal Revenue Code as follows:  "The first 9 pages of the Internal Revenue Code define income; the remaining 1,100 pages spin the web of exceptions and preferences."

Our jovial support of the social welfare state will return tomorrow.

The media missed a little something about the Scappoose cattle baron

The local newspapers have had a few engaging stories (here's one from the Tribune) about an 86-year-old Scappoose farmer who was convicted on 27 pollution counts in February, and who has been sentenced to 5 days in jail and a $300,000 fine.

Apparently unremarked by the local media, the farmer, William Holdner, is a certified public accountant.  He's also the president of Data Systems, Inc,, a company headquartered in southeast Portland whose stock is thinly traded under the ticker symbol DSTO.  It's a very small company; Mr. Holdner's cattle ranching operations might be larger, but it's still one of the few public companies headquartered in Portland, and I would have thought that an enterprising reporter might have picked up on this.

Kate Brown says that a candidate who wins 97% in the primary has to go to a runoff

Last week I predicted that the Attorney General would move quickly to repair Secretary of State Kate Brown's bungling of the Labor Commissioner Election, and that the Avakian-Starr election would appear on the May ballot, as it should.  I was half-right: Willamette Week reports that the office of Legislative Counsel (the agency of the Legislature that actually drafts bills and resolutions for the legislators to consider) opined on March 21 that the law requires the Labor Commissioner race to be on the May ballot.   Counsel's opinion comes too late to return the election to its proper place, however.

Secretary Brown believes that an obscure amendment to the election laws, passed in 2009, requires the Labor Commissioner to be elected in November and not in May, and therefore because only two candidates filed, they must face each other in November.

Allowing that the question is now of only academic interest, here's another reason why she's wrong.  Imagine that three candidates had filed: let's call them Avakian, Laquedem, and Starr.  Secretary Brown told Willamette Week that if more than two candidates had filed, she would have placed them on the May ballot.  So all three of us would have been on the May ballot. 

So far so good . . . unless one of us won a majority in May.  To be extreme about it, let's say that Mr. Starr draws 1%, Mr. Avakian 2%, and the other 97% vote for Isaac.  (One can always dream.)

Under Secretary Brown's theory, the law prohibits me from being elected in May, and Mr. Avakian and I would have been in a runoff in November even though I'd won 97% of the vote in May.

That is not the law.  That cannot be the law.  Ms. Brown bungled this one badly.